How do you plan for long term hr strategy in the current economic environment?

How do you plan for long term hr strategy in the current economic environment?
Taking in to consideration past events and the demands at those times offers valuable guidance for potential requirements.
Example: If production dropped 15% and the hr requirements should have also followed the trend the it is potential viable to follow the trend NOW pro-rata.
If a output increase is predicted then ascertain the labour requirements to meet that increase. Is it a short term hit with decreases expected early? or is it a slow sustainable increase which will require labour at a latter stage to maintain the output
Is the predicted work output temporary - if so could temporary staff be employed - are there part time staff who could work additional hours to meet the demand - is the cost viable
Added to this is the world PLAN - It is better to plan something with a contingency employed in the event that financial income remains low. Basically a HR plan is alike a road map - there to be followed but requiring frequent stops to ensure that your in the right direction - if not DO NOT BE AFRAID TO CHANGE DIRECTION. - Its easy to stay on a useless track - its good management to recognise when your in difficulties and to take the necessary alternatives